Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: hopeful statements are issued from different nations. Significant resources is devoted on managing specific proposals. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from across the border, a ability provided through up-to-date information. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to engage hostile guided weapons roared overhead – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: multiple launches deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably delivered by Western nations. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly becomes sober acceptance: possibly the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a heavy machine gun fired at a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely imported technology. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its objective.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: multiple fatalities, destruction and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a dependence that European nations are clearly incapable to fill in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from Washington generated strong feelings, controversy and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new proposal from American administration follows the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This trend will, no doubt, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership works based on a assumption well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration believes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does nothing to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its favour in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding lives and land but avoiding a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its favour.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: personal goals to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not move to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to terminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new plans based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
